Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Pistons TOR @ DET

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

42-32  |  Road

116
FINAL
Tue, Mar 31 • 8:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

54-21  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
PISTONS
0%
RAPTORS --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Detroit)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

21.2%

Pistons Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

TOR By 1-7 points

13.7%

TOR By 8-14 points

4.8%

DET By 1-7 points

25.3%

DET By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
115
TORONTO
123
DETROIT
Simulated Score
115
TORONTO
108
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pistons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pistons (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Raptors (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o220.5 Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim u220.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 TOR @ DET 116 - 127
Mar 15, 2026 DET @ TOR 108 - 119
Feb 11, 2026 DET @ TOR 113 - 95
Apr 4, 2025 DET @ TOR 117 - 105
Jan 11, 2025 TOR @ DET 114 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.5% more
Detroit: 7.0 vs Toronto: 5.5
Turnovers (L5) +25.9% more
Detroit: 16.5 vs Toronto: 13.1
Assists (L5) +16.0% more
Toronto: 36.3 vs Detroit: 30.5
Steals (L5) +12.6% more
Toronto: 12.5 vs Detroit: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 115.0 116
DET Score 123.0 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.4 / 40.2 57.0 / 34.0
Assists 30.5 / 36.3 33.0 / 33.0
Blocks 7.0 / 5.5 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 52.8 60.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 68.8 87.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 46.1 / 42.7 34.0 / 35.0
Steals 10.9 / 12.5 7.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 13.1 21.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TOR
DET
TOR
ML
55% 64-53
55% 57-47
49% 47-49
55% 48-39
ATS
53% 60-54-3
61% 62-40-2
49% 47-49
55% 48-39
TTL
60% 70-46-1
60% 62-42
100% 96-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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