NEW YORK
METSNYM
3-1 | Road
0
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
2-2 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kodai Senga
#34 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 6.0 | 9 |
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.00
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
METS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 11, 2026
STL @ NYM
4 - 5
Jun 10, 2026
STL @ NYM
9 - 2
Jun 9, 2026
STL @ NYM
7 - 0
Apr 1, 2026
NYM @ STL
1 - 2
Mar 31, 2026
NYM @ STL
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.705
▲
OPS
.691
204
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+80.0% more
St. Louis: 1.3
vs
New York: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
New York: 4.3
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.3%
St. Louis: 31.3%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Strikeouts (L5)
+36.3% more
New York: 9.4
vs
St. Louis: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.0
0
STL Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 8.7
6.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.0 / 9.4
5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 13.2
11.0 / 4.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.9
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
NYM
STL
NYM
ML
53%
85-74
50%
79-80
52%
84-77
48%
76-83
ATS
56%
89-70
58%
93-66
53%
85-76
49%
78-81
TTL
46%
68-81-10
55%
80-66-13
50%
76-75-10
51%
74-72-13
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