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MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

42-21-10  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Mar 31 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

46-21-6  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Jakub Dobes
GOALTENDER

Jakub Dobes

#75 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jakub Dobes None-None 1.00 0.973 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 2.08 0.905 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 2.08
0.973 Ldr Save % 0.905
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
CANADIENS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
CanadiensMTL (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Canadiens Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

MTL By 1 goal

12.1%

MTL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
MONTREAL
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
MONTREAL
2
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Canadiens Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lightning (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Canadiens (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 MTL @ TB 2 - 1
May 1, 2026 TB @ MTL 1 - 0
Apr 29, 2026 MTL @ TB 3 - 2
Apr 26, 2026 TB @ MTL 3 - 2
Apr 24, 2026 TB @ MTL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +29.2%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Montreal: 2.2%
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.8% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Montreal: 29.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +34.0% more
Montreal: 19.6 vs Tampa Bay: 12.9
Hits (L5) +14.4% more
Montreal: 21.9 vs Tampa Bay: 18.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTL Score 2.0 4
TB Score 3.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
84%MONEY16%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MTL
TB
MTL
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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