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DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

39-26-8  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Mar 31 • 7:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

37-21-16  |  Home

5
Goaltending
John Gibson
GOALTENDER

John Gibson

#36 | Goaltender
@
Kris Letang
GOALTENDER

Kris Letang

#58 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
John Gibson None-None 9.00 0.786 --
Kris Letang None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
9.00 GAA --
0.786 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
100%
📊
PENGUINS
0%
RED WINGS --
PENGUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Red WingsDET (-3.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wings Cover

2.3%

Penguins Cover

97.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

DET By 1 goal

0.9%

DET By 2-3 goals

0.3%

PIT By 1 goal

6.6%

PIT By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
1
DETROIT
5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
2
DETROIT
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penguins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penguins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim Penguins (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 DET @ PIT 1 - 5
Jan 3, 2026 PIT @ DET 4 - 1
Jan 1, 2026 DET @ PIT 3 - 4
Sep 29, 2025 PIT @ DET 2 - 1
Sep 26, 2025 DET @ PIT 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +21.3% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5 vs Detroit: 25.1
Faceoff % (L5) +5.3%
Pittsburgh: 46.3% vs Detroit: 41.0%
Power Play % (L5) +21.8%
Detroit: 24.3% vs Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Blocked Shots (L5) +14.2% more
Detroit: 13.0 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 1.0 1
PIT Score 5.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
66%MONEY34%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
DET
PIT
DET
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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