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NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

42-28-5  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Mar 31 • 7:00 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

45-21-8  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
@
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ilya Sorokin None-None 3.11 0.906 --
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 3.02 0.893 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.11 GAA Ldr 3.02
0.906 Ldr Save % 0.893
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
100%
📊
SABRES
0%
ISLANDERS --
SABRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Buffalo)
IslandersNYI (-3.5) 0 SabresBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Islanders Cover

15.9%

Sabres Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

NYI By 1 goal

6.6%

NYI By 2-3 goals

3.7%

BUF By 1 goal

17.5%

BUF By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
NEW YORK
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
2
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sabres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Islanders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sabres (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Islanders (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 NYI @ BUF 3 - 4
Jan 24, 2026 BUF @ NYI 5 - 0
Dec 20, 2025 NYI @ BUF 2 - 3
Dec 23, 2024 BUF @ NYI 7 - 1
Nov 30, 2024 BUF @ NYI 0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +26.3% more
Buffalo: 5.2 vs New York: 4.2
Hits (L5) +24.8% more
Buffalo: 22.7 vs New York: 18.2
Power Play % (L5) +22.7%
Buffalo: 26.3% vs New York: 3.6%
Shots on Goal (L5) +21.6% more
Buffalo: 27.2 vs New York: 22.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYI Score 1.0 3
BUF Score 3.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
55%MONEY45%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
NYI
BUF
NYI
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
100% 2-0-1
33% 1-2
100% 2-0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
si 6 hours, 12 minutes ago
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
si 12 hours, 12 minutes ago
Islanders Lock Up Czech Blueliner Vladimir Dravecky with Three-Y…
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Rangers' Shesterkin and Fox Shine in ESPN Top 100 Despite Rankin…
si 1 day, 12 hours ago
Islanders Defy Doubters with Four Stars on ESPN Top 100 List
si 1 day, 12 hours ago