Home / MLB Projections MLB / Nationals @ Phillies WSH @ PHI

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

2-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Mon, Mar 30 • 6:40 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

1-2  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jorbit Vivas
STARTING PITCHER

Jorbit Vivas

#84 | Third Base
@
Jose Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Alvarado

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jorbit Vivas None-None -- -- -- --
Jose Alvarado None-None 27.00 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 27.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
PHILLIES
0%
NATIONALS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

40.1%

Phillies Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
WASHINGTON
3
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
6
WASHINGTON
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 PHI @ WSH 3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026 PHI @ WSH 3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026 WSH @ PHI 3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026 WSH @ PHI 10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026 WSH @ PHI 0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.744 ▲
OPS
.724
210 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +21.9% more
Philadelphia: 11.0 vs Washington: 9.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Washington: 42.3%
Home Runs (Season) +98.6% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5) +74.1% more
Washington: 1.4 vs Philadelphia: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 2.0 13
PHI Score 3.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.6 / 8.1 7.0 / 17.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 2.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.0 / 9.0 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 8.5 / 15.7 12.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.8 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
59% 97-67
57% 92-69
49% 80-84
54% 87-74
ATS
65% 107-57
58% 93-68
51% 83-81
57% 91-70
TTL
57% 88-67-9
50% 77-78-6
51% 78-76-9
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
si 1 day, 8 hours ago
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…
si 1 day, 14 hours ago
Alex Cora Rejects Phillies Again, Opts to Sit Out 2027 Season
si 1 day, 20 hours ago
Phillies' Managerial Plans Thrown Into Disarray as Alex Cora Opt…
yardbarker 1 day, 20 hours ago
A's Seth Johnson Undergoes Knee Surgery, Eyes Spring Training Re…
si 2 days, 14 hours ago