Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Dodgers CLE @ LAD

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

2-2  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Mar 30 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

3-0  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
@
Justin Wrobleski
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Wrobleski

#70 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cade Smith None-None 9.00 -- 1.0 --
Justin Wrobleski None-None 6.75 -- 4.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
9.00 ERA Ldr 6.75
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
📊
DODGERS
0%
GUARDIANS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Dodgers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.6%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CLEVELAND
3
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Dodgers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 CLE @ LAD 4 - 1
Mar 31, 2026 CLE @ LAD 1 - 4
Mar 30, 2026 CLE @ LAD 4 - 2
May 28, 2025 LAD @ CLE 4 - 7
May 27, 2025 LAD @ CLE 9 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.696
OPS
▲ .762
162
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +78.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.6 vs Cleveland: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +35.4% more
Los Angeles: 12.4 vs Cleveland: 9.2
Home Runs (Season) +25.9% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Hits (L5) +22.0% more
Los Angeles: 6.7 vs Cleveland: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 2.0 4
LAD Score 3.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 5.5 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 10.3 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 9.2 11.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.4 / 5.2 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
CLE
LAD
CLE
ML
56% 92-73
54% 87-74
48% 79-87
49% 80-82
ATS
59% 98-67
58% 93-68
43% 72-94
59% 95-67
TTL
48% 77-82-6
55% 88-71-2
44% 70-90-6
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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