BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
1-2 | Road
1
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
2-2 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ranger Suarez
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yainer Diaz
#21 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | None-None | 8.31 | -- | 4.1 | 3 |
| Yainer Diaz | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
8.31
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
4.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
ASTROS
100%
RED SOX
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Houston
2
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Boston
5
BOSTON
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
HOU @ BOS
3 - 1
May 2, 2026
HOU @ BOS
6 - 3
May 1, 2026
HOU @ BOS
1 - 3
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ HOU
4 - 6
Mar 31, 2026
BOS @ HOU
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Houston
HOU
2
Games Played
2
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
3.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.169
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.229
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.354
.409
OPS
▲
.582
2
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+51.0% more
Boston: 0.6
vs
Houston: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+26.0% more
Boston: 0.9
vs
Houston: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+200.0% more
Houston: 3.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+63.1% more
Houston: 6.5
vs
Boston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.0
1
HOU Score
2.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.8
13.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.9
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.8 / 10.3
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 12.5
27.0 / 6.0
Walks
6.5 / 4.0
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BOS
HOU
BOS
ML
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
47%
77-87
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
91-72
58%
93-67
55%
90-74
48%
79-84
TTL
45%
70-84-9
46%
72-83-5
45%
69-86-9
47%
74-83-6
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