Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Brewers TB @ MIL

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

1-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Mar 30 • 7:40 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

3-0  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Kevin Kelly
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Kelly

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Trevor Megill
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Megill

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kevin Kelly None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 --
Trevor Megill None-None 4.50 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 4.50
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
📊
BREWERS
0%
RAYS --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Milwaukee)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

22.7%

Brewers Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

TB By 1-2 runs

10.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

5.4%

MIL By 1-2 runs

18.4%

MIL By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
1
TAMPA BAY
4
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Brewers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 TB @ MIL 2 - 8
Mar 31, 2026 TB @ MIL 2 - 6
Mar 30, 2026 TB @ MIL 3 - 2
May 11, 2025 MIL @ TB 4 - 2
May 10, 2025 MIL @ TB 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Milwaukee MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.258
Avg (AVG)
.258
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.728
OPS
▲ .743
169 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +83.1% more
Milwaukee: 12.4 vs Tampa Bay: 6.8
Home Runs (L5) +73.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.1 vs Tampa Bay: 0.4
Walks (L5) +60.7% more
Milwaukee: 4.3 vs Tampa Bay: 2.7
Runs per Game (Season) +13.2% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 1.0 3
MIL Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.4 / 12.3 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 12.4 / 6.8 14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 15.3 10.0 / 14.0
Walks 4.3 / 2.7 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
TB
MIL
TB
ML
62% 101-61
58% 95-68
52% 84-78
58% 95-68
ATS
58% 94-68
60% 97-66
48% 78-84
55% 90-73
TTL
40% 62-92-8
47% 73-81-9
50% 77-77-8
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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