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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

1-2  |  Road

0
FINAL
Mon, Mar 30 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

2-1  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Braxton Ashcraft
STARTING PITCHER

Braxton Ashcraft

#35 | Starting Pitcher
@
Chase Burns
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Burns

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Braxton Ashcraft None-None 3.00 -- 6.0 3
Chase Burns None-None 0.00 -- 5.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
📊
REDS
0%
PIRATES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
PITTSBURGH
4
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026 PIT @ CIN 4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 PIT @ CIN 7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 CIN @ PIT 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.734 ▲
OPS
.699
186
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +15.9% more
Cincinnati: 4.5 vs Pittsburgh: 3.9
Home Runs (Season) +14.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Pittsburgh: 186.0
Errors (L5) +40.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.6 vs Cincinnati: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +19.7% more
Pittsburgh: 11.4 vs Cincinnati: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.0 0
CIN Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 8.9 4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 11.4 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 13.4 6.0 / 4.0
Walks 4.5 / 3.9 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PIT
CIN
PIT
ML
55% 88-71
52% 82-77
49% 79-81
52% 85-78
ATS
54% 86-73
54% 86-73
50% 80-80
50% 81-82
TTL
53% 81-73-5
47% 72-81-6
54% 83-72-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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