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DETROIT

PISTONSDET

54-20  |  Road

110
FINAL
Mon, Mar 30 • 9:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

59-16  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
📊
THUNDER
100%
PISTONS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

30.9%

Thunder Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

DET By 1-7 points

27.2%

DET By 8-14 points

23.0%

OKC By 1-7 points

18.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
116
DETROIT
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
122
DETROIT
108
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pistons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pistons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Pistons (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o217.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim u217.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 DET @ OKC 110 - 114
Feb 25, 2026 OKC @ DET 116 - 124
Apr 2, 2025 DET @ OKC 103 - 119
Mar 15, 2025 OKC @ DET 113 - 107
Jan 28, 2024 OKC @ DET 104 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.4% more
Detroit: 6.6 vs Oklahoma City: 4.4
Turnovers (L5) +26.2% more
Detroit: 16.7 vs Oklahoma City: 12.3
Assists (L5) +20.6% more
Detroit: 30.8 vs Oklahoma City: 24.4
Steals (L5) +14.2% more
Detroit: 10.3 vs Oklahoma City: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 116.0 110
OKC Score 111.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 39.1 29.0 / 37.0
Assists 24.4 / 30.8 17.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.4 / 6.6 6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 51.6 47.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 80.1 / 79.1 88.0 / 52.0
Rebounding 45.4 / 46.1 42.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.9 / 10.3 9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 16.7 18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DET
OKC
DET
ML
70% 80-34
55% 64-53
48% 46-49
49% 47-49
ATS
73% 83-30-1
53% 60-54-3
48% 46-49
49% 47-49
TTL
67% 76-38
60% 70-46-1
100% 95-0
100% 96-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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