BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
50-24 | Road
102
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
42-33 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
HAWKS
0%
CELTICS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
212.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
BOS By 1-7 points
10.7%
BOS By 8-14 points
3.3%
ATL By 1-7 points
23.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
101
BOSTON
Atlanta
111
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Boston
106
BOSTON
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u225.5
Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Sim
u225.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
BOS @ ATL
102 - 112
Mar 27, 2026
ATL @ BOS
102 - 109
Jan 28, 2026
ATL @ BOS
117 - 106
Jan 17, 2026
BOS @ ATL
132 - 106
Jan 18, 2025
ATL @ BOS
119 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+80.8% more
Atlanta: 9.1
vs
Boston: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+29.2% more
Atlanta: 30.3
vs
Boston: 23.5
Blocks (L5)
+12.9% more
Atlanta: 3.6
vs
Boston: 3.2
Rebounding (L5)
+10.3% more
Boston: 46.0
vs
Atlanta: 41.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
101.0
102
ATL Score
111.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.3 / 38.2
39.0 / 38.0
Assists
30.3 / 23.5
28.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.2
6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 47.0
47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
78.8 / 81.4
73.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
41.3 / 46.0
45.0 / 48.0
Steals
9.1 / 5.0
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 11.6
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
BOS
ATL
BOS
ML
50%
52-52
57%
61-46
55%
48-40
53%
47-41
ATS
53%
55-48-1
59%
61-43-3
55%
48-40
53%
47-41
TTL
53%
55-48-1
56%
60-47
100%
88-0
100%
88-0
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