PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
41-33 | Road
109
MIAMI
HEATMIA
39-36 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
100%
HEAT
0%
76ERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
PHI By 1-7 points
12.2%
PHI By 8-14 points
4.0%
MIA By 1-7 points
24.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
110
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
119
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
105
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
108
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u243.5
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u243.5
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PHI @ MIA
109 - 119
Feb 26, 2026
MIA @ PHI
117 - 124
Nov 23, 2025
MIA @ PHI
127 - 117
Apr 7, 2025
PHI @ MIA
105 - 117
Mar 29, 2025
MIA @ PHI
118 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+9.0% more
Miami: 28.5
vs
Philadelphia: 26.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.8%
Miami: 80.5%
vs
Philadelphia: 73.7%
Blocks (L5)
+39.6% more
Philadelphia: 6.6
vs
Miami: 4.0
Steals (L5)
+15.2% more
Philadelphia: 8.0
vs
Miami: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
110.0
109
MIA Score
119.0
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 40.0
28.0 / 32.0
Assists
28.5 / 26.1
24.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.0 / 6.6
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 49.1
46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
80.5 / 73.7
76.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
42.0 / 44.7
57.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.0
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 11.5
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PHI
MIA
PHI
ML
48%
46-50
63%
69-40
59%
48-34
48%
45-48
ATS
51%
49-47
65%
71-38
59%
48-34
48%
45-48
TTL
59%
57-39
55%
60-49
100%
82-0
100%
93-0
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