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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

36-21-16  |  Road

8
FINAL
Mon, Mar 30 • 7:00 PM ET
UBS Arena
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

42-27-5  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Arturs Silovs
GOALTENDER

Arturs Silovs

#37 | Goaltender
@
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Arturs Silovs None-None 3.00 0.870 --
Ilya Sorokin None-None 8.77 0.759 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.00 Ldr GAA 8.77
0.870 Ldr Save % 0.759
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
📊
ISLANDERS
100%
PENGUINS --
ISLANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Pittsburgh)
PenguinsPIT (-3.5) 0 IslandersNYI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

97.7%

Islanders Cover

2.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1 goal

6.6%

PIT By 2-3 goals

29.6%

NYI By 1 goal

0.9%

NYI By 2-3 goals

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
PITTSBURGH
1
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
2
PITTSBURGH
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penguins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Islanders Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penguins (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim Islanders (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 PIT @ NYI 8 - 3
Feb 3, 2026 PIT @ NYI 4 - 5
Oct 9, 2025 NYI @ PIT 3 - 4
Mar 18, 2025 NYI @ PIT 4 - 2
Dec 29, 2024 NYI @ PIT 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +26.6% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5 vs New York: 22.4
Takeaways (L5) +23.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.8 vs New York: 3.7
Faceoff % (L5) +11.6%
New York: 57.9% vs Pittsburgh: 46.3%
Blocked Shots (L5) +10.8% more
New York: 12.3 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 5.0 8
NYI Score 1.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
46%MONEY54%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
PIT
NYI
PIT
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
67% 2-1-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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