BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
49-24 | Road
114
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
39-35 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
HORNETS
0%
CELTICS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
BOS By 1-7 points
5.8%
BOS By 8-14 points
1.4%
CHA By 1-7 points
16.9%
CHA By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
101
BOSTON
Charlotte
115
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Boston
105
BOSTON
Charlotte
120
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u217.5
Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim
u217.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
CHA @ BOS
102 - 113
Mar 29, 2026
BOS @ CHA
114 - 99
Mar 4, 2026
CHA @ BOS
118 - 89
Apr 13, 2025
CHA @ BOS
86 - 93
Apr 11, 2025
CHA @ BOS
94 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+31.3% more
Charlotte: 5.9
vs
Boston: 4.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Charlotte: 46.7%
vs
Boston: 45.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Charlotte: 38.4%
vs
Boston: 36.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.3%
Boston: 85.6%
vs
Charlotte: 78.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
101.0
114
CHA Score
115.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 36.7
28.0 / 41.0
Assists
24.7 / 23.7
19.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.1 / 3.3
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 45.0
43.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
78.3 / 85.6
79.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
49.1 / 49.6
37.0 / 39.0
Steals
5.9 / 4.5
2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 13.9
12.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
BOS
CHA
BOS
ML
61%
60-39
57%
61-46
48%
40-44
53%
47-41
ATS
60%
59-40
59%
61-43-3
48%
40-44
53%
47-41
TTL
58%
57-42
56%
60-47
100%
84-0
100%
88-0
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