Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Pelicans HOU @ NO

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

44-29  |  Road

134
FINAL
Sun, Mar 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

25-50  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
ROCKETS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New Orleans)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

46.0%

Pelicans Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

HOU By 1-7 points

24.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

13.7%

NO By 1-7 points

26.2%

NO By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
122
HOUSTON
123
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
114
HOUSTON
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o225.5 Win
Proj Total: 245.0
D
Sim u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 HOU @ NO 134 - 102
Mar 13, 2026 NO @ HOU 105 - 107
Jan 18, 2026 NO @ HOU 110 - 119
Dec 18, 2025 HOU @ NO 128 - 133
Oct 14, 2025 HOU @ NO 130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +10.1% more
New Orleans: 8.7 vs Houston: 7.9
Turnovers (L5) +21.4% more
Houston: 16.6 vs New Orleans: 13.0
Rebounding (L5) +18.0% more
Houston: 50.5 vs New Orleans: 41.5
Assists (L5) +9.5% more
Houston: 28.4 vs New Orleans: 25.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 122.0 134
NO Score 123.0 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 34.3 31.0 / 41.0
Assists 25.7 / 28.4 19.0 / 33.0
Blocks 6.4 / 6.7 9.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 47.4 43.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 76.6 68.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 50.5 36.0 / 59.0
Steals 8.7 / 7.9 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 16.6 11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
HOU
NO
HOU
ML
62% 98-61
61% 69-44
58% 48-35
59% 51-35
ATS
68% 107-51-1
62% 70-43
58% 48-35
59% 51-35
TTL
75% 119-40
51% 58-55
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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