Home / NBA Projections NBA / Wizards @ Trail Blazers WSH @ POR

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

17-56  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sun, Mar 29 • 6:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

37-38  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
WIZARDS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Portland)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

24.2%

Trail Blazers Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

WSH By 1-7 points

15.3%

WSH By 8-14 points

5.8%

POR By 1-7 points

26.2%

POR By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
105
WASHINGTON
112
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
107
WASHINGTON
112
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Sim u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 WSH @ POR 88 - 123
Jan 27, 2026 POR @ WSH 111 - 115
Mar 17, 2025 WSH @ POR 97 - 112
Feb 26, 2025 POR @ WSH 129 - 121
Apr 5, 2024 POR @ WSH 108 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +81.3% more
Portland: 7.3 vs Washington: 4.0
Turnovers (L5) +39.5% more
Portland: 21.0 vs Washington: 15.1
Rebounding (L5) +22.4% more
Portland: 48.8 vs Washington: 39.9
Free Throw % (L5) +1.7%
Portland: 75.3% vs Washington: 73.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 105.0 88
POR Score 112.0 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 40.8 33.0 / 23.0
Assists 24.7 / 26.6 24.0 / 16.0
Blocks 7.3 / 4.0 10.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 50.7 51.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 73.6 72.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 48.8 / 39.9 49.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.6 / 8.0 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 21.0 / 15.1 14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
WSH
POR
WSH
ML
53% 56-49
70% 112-49
55% 49-40
47% 39-44
ATS
62% 65-39-1
69% 111-49-1
55% 49-40
47% 39-44
TTL
56% 58-46-1
74% 119-41-1
100% 89-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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