PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
0-2 | Road
4
NEW YORK
METSNYM
2-0 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Luke Weaver
#18 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Weaver | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Sean Manaea | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
METS
0%
PIRATES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
New York
3
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
New York
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
NYM @ PIT
11 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
NYM @ PIT
0 - 9
Aug 7, 2026
NYM @ PIT
6 - 4
Mar 29, 2026
PIT @ NYM
4 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
PIT @ NYM
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.734
▲
OPS
.705
186
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+16.5% more
New York: 1.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.0
Home Runs (Season)
+9.7% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 186.0
Walks (L5)
+49.0% more
Pittsburgh: 4.9
vs
New York: 2.5
Hits (L5)
+24.2% more
Pittsburgh: 9.9
vs
New York: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.0
4
NYM Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 9.9
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 9.0
12.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 14.7
12.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.5 / 4.9
8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PIT
NYM
PIT
ML
50%
79-80
52%
82-77
48%
76-83
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
93-66
54%
86-73
49%
78-81
50%
81-82
TTL
55%
80-66-13
47%
72-81-6
51%
74-72-13
50%
79-78-6
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