KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
0-2 | Road
4
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
2-0 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Didier Fuentes
#72 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Didier Fuentes | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 4.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
2.25
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
100%
BRAVES
0%
ROYALS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
KC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Royals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
KC @ ATL
4 - 1
Mar 28, 2026
KC @ ATL
2 - 6
Mar 27, 2026
KC @ ATL
0 - 6
Jul 30, 2025
ATL @ KC
0 - 1
Jul 29, 2025
ATL @ KC
6 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.718
OPS
▲
.757
170
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+62.0% more
Atlanta: 1.6
vs
Kansas City: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+31.0% more
Atlanta: 0.4
vs
Kansas City: 0.1
Total Bases (L5)
+24.6% more
Atlanta: 14.6
vs
Kansas City: 11.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+17.4% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.0
4
ATL Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 7.3
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 9.5
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 11.7
11.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.5
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
KC
ATL
KC
ML
46%
77-90
55%
89-72
54%
90-78
56%
90-70
ATS
57%
96-71
57%
91-70
52%
87-81
58%
93-67
TTL
53%
83-73-11
58%
90-64-7
49%
76-80-11
54%
83-70-7
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