BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
1-1 | Road
2
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
1-1 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jovani Moran
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jovani Moran | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.86 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
3.86
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
REDS
0%
RED SOX
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
BOS @ CIN
2 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
BOS @ CIN
5 - 6
Mar 26, 2026
BOS @ CIN
3 - 0
Jul 2, 2025
CIN @ BOS
8 - 4
Jul 1, 2025
CIN @ BOS
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.229
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.305
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.409
OPS
▲
.699
2
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+10550.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+311.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+29.0%
Cincinnati: 69.9%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+14.6%
Cincinnati: 30.5%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.0
2
CIN Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.2
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 10.9
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 12.3
11.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.8 / 4.0
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
BOS
CIN
BOS
ML
55%
88-71
50%
80-80
49%
79-81
47%
76-87
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-67
50%
80-80
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
81-73-5
46%
72-83-5
54%
83-72-5
47%
74-83-6
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