MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
1-1 | Road
6
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
1-1 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 4.0 | 1 |
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.75
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
ORIOLES
0%
TWINS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 2
Aug 10, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 9
Mar 29, 2026
MIN @ BAL
6 - 8
Mar 28, 2026
MIN @ BAL
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720
▲
OPS
.711
187
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+24.0% more
Baltimore: 0.7
vs
Minnesota: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+8.8% more
Baltimore: 3.6
vs
Minnesota: 3.3
Home Runs (Season)
+6.4% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Minnesota: 187.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+20.8% more
Minnesota: 12.0
vs
Baltimore: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.0
6
BAL Score
4.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.1 / 5.6
12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 12.0
12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
8.1 / 9.4
18.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.3
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
MIN
BAL
MIN
ML
53%
83-73
52%
84-78
57%
90-69
50%
80-81
ATS
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-67
57%
90-68-1
59%
95-66
TTL
54%
81-70-5
51%
78-75-9
51%
78-75-6
53%
80-72-9
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