MIAMI
HEATMIA
39-35 | Road
118
INDIANA
PACERSIND
16-58 | Home
135
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
PACERS
100%
HEAT
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
MIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
25.3%
IND By 1-7 points
15.3%
IND By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
120
MIAMI
Indiana
113
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Miami
108
MIAMI
Indiana
120
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u247.5
Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim
u247.5
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
MIA @ IND
118 - 135
Jan 10, 2026
MIA @ IND
99 - 123
Dec 27, 2025
IND @ MIA
116 - 142
Feb 28, 2025
IND @ MIA
120 - 125
Jan 2, 2025
IND @ MIA
128 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+18.6% more
Miami: 7.7
vs
Indiana: 6.2
Rebounding (L5)
+9.3% more
Miami: 42.0
vs
Indiana: 38.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.8%
Miami: 84.8%
vs
Indiana: 79.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+26.4% more
Indiana: 15.9
vs
Miami: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
120.0
118
IND Score
113.0
135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.2 / 34.3
46.0 / 35.0
Assists
33.5 / 28.2
36.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.7 / 3.9
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.7 / 46.4
58.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
79.0 / 84.8
85.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 42.0
42.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.2 / 7.7
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 12.6
12.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIA
IND
MIA
ML
48%
47-50
48%
46-50
54%
45-38
59%
48-34
ATS
59%
57-40
51%
49-47
54%
45-38
59%
48-34
TTL
54%
52-45
59%
57-39
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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