Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Huskies @ Blue Devils CONN @ DUKE

UCONN

HUSKIESCONN

32-5  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sun, Mar 29 • 5:05 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

35-2  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
100%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
0%
HUSKIES --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Duke)
HuskiesCONN (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Huskies Cover

30.9%

Blue Devils Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUKE -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

CONN By 1-7 points

18.6%

CONN By 8-14 points

8.0%

DUKE By 1-7 points

27.2%

DUKE By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
65
UCONN
70
DUKE
Simulated Score
73
UCONN
76
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 CONN @ DUKE 73 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +16.9% more
Duke: 41.5 vs UConn: 35.5
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Duke: 49.2% vs UConn: 45.9%
Steals (L5) +33.0% more
UConn: 7.0 vs Duke: 4.7
Assists (L5) +23.0% more
UConn: 18.3 vs Duke: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 65.0 73
DUKE Score 70.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 32.5 40.0 / 22.0
Assists 14.1 / 18.3 17.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.5 6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 49.2 / 45.9 52.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 75.2 73.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 35.5 34.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.7 / 7.0 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 12.2 13.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN
34-6-0 (85.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN
18-22-0 (45.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
DUKE Advantage
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5% Total +/-: -1.5
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
CONN
DUKE
CONN
ML
71% 27-11
76% 29-9
73% 24-9
66% 23-12
ATS
79% 30-8
74% 28-10
73% 24-9
66% 23-12
TTL
47% 18-20
50% 19-19
100% 33-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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