Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Suns UTAH @ PHX

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

21-53  |  Road

109
FINAL
Sat, Mar 28 • 10:00 PM ET
Mortgage Matchup Center
View Odds Details →

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

40-33  |  Home

134
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
SUNS
0%
JAZZ --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Phoenix)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

2.9%

Suns Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

UTAH By 1-7 points

2.2%

UTAH By 8-14 points

0.4%

PHX By 1-7 points

9.3%

PHX By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
106
UTAH
125
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
118
UTAH
112
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Suns Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jazz Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Suns (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Jazz (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.5 Loss
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 28, 2026 UTAH @ PHX 109 - 134
Oct 31, 2025 UTAH @ PHX 96 - 118
Oct 27, 2025 PHX @ UTAH 134 - 138
Feb 7, 2025 UTAH @ PHX 127 - 135
Jan 11, 2025 UTAH @ PHX 106 - 114
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.9%
Phoenix: 38.0% vs Utah: 29.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +6.4%
Phoenix: 78.7% vs Utah: 72.3%
Turnovers (L5) +24.8% more
Utah: 13.7 vs Phoenix: 10.3
Assists (L5) +20.1% more
Utah: 31.1 vs Phoenix: 24.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 106.0 109
PHX Score 125.0 134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 29.1 32.0 / 43.0
Assists 24.9 / 31.1 29.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.7 / 5.5 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 49.6 50.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 78.7 / 72.3 62.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 41.1 / 41.6 60.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.4 / 10.0 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 13.7 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
UTAH
PHX
UTAH
ML
57% 60-45
60% 96-63
51% 45-43
48% 40-43
ATS
58% 59-43-3
68% 108-51
51% 45-43
48% 40-43
TTL
59% 61-42-2
75% 119-39-1
100% 88-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Chicago Bulls Edge Phoenix Suns 124-117 in Preseason Opener
headtopics 18 hours, 9 minutes ago
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
chicago_suntimes 18 hours, 36 minutes ago
Phoenix Suns 2026-27 Season Preview: Can Devin Booker and the Re…
yahoo 23 hours, 58 minutes ago
Nuggets' Bench Sparks 117-106 Preseason Win Over Jazz, Led by Di…
si 1 day, 17 hours ago
Nuggets Secure First Preseason Win Over Jazz: Braun, Gordon Impr…
gazette 1 day, 18 hours ago