SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
19-55 | Road
113
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
41-33 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
HAWKS
0%
KINGS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
SAC By 1-7 points
0.1%
SAC By 8-14 points
0.0%
ATL By 1-7 points
1.4%
ATL By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
90
SACRAMENTO
Atlanta
119
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Sacramento
108
SACRAMENTO
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (-14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u235.5
Loss
Proj Total: 209.0
D
Sim
u235.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
SAC @ ATL
113 - 123
Nov 12, 2025
ATL @ SAC
133 - 100
Nov 18, 2024
ATL @ SAC
109 - 108
Nov 1, 2024
SAC @ ATL
123 - 115
Jan 22, 2024
ATL @ SAC
107 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+57.1% more
Atlanta: 8.6
vs
Sacramento: 5.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.1%
Atlanta: 79.6%
vs
Sacramento: 73.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Sacramento: 39.7%
vs
Atlanta: 36.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Sacramento: 48.2%
vs
Atlanta: 46.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
90.0
113
ATL Score
119.0
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 39.7
39.0 / 38.0
Assists
28.5 / 28.7
34.0 / 27.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.7
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 48.2
51.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 73.6
77.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
42.0 / 39.9
40.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.6 / 5.5
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 12.8
13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SAC
ATL
SAC
ML
50%
52-52
55%
55-45
55%
48-40
61%
50-32
ATS
53%
55-48-1
54%
52-45-3
55%
48-40
61%
50-32
TTL
53%
55-48-1
58%
57-42-1
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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