Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Giants NYY @ SF

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

2-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Mar 28 • 7:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

0-2  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
JT Brubaker
STARTING PITCHER

JT Brubaker

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Bednar None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
JT Brubaker None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
100%
📊
GIANTS
0%
YANKEES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Francisco)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

40.1%

Giants Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.3%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
NEW YORK
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 28, 2026 NYY @ SF 3 - 1
Mar 27, 2026 NYY @ SF 3 - 0
Mar 25, 2026 NYY @ SF 7 - 0
Apr 13, 2025 SF @ NYY 5 - 4
Apr 12, 2025 SF @ NYY 4 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
San Francisco SF
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
1.041 ▲
OPS
.706
2
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8800.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs New York: 2.0
Walks (L5) +33.7% more
San Francisco: 2.7 vs New York: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +8.2% more
San Francisco: 9.7 vs New York: 9.0
Runs per Game (Season) +54.1% more
New York: 9.0 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.0 3
SF Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 4.1 / 8.6 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 9.0 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 7.2 / 13.7 11.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.0 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
NYY
SF
NYY
ML
49% 79-81
47% 76-85
53% 85-75
52% 85-77
ATS
62% 100-60
59% 95-66
52% 83-77
53% 86-76
TTL
55% 82-68-10
53% 81-73-7
46% 68-81-11
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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