Home / MLB Projections MLB / Diamondbacks @ Dodgers ARI @ LAD

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

0-2  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Mar 28 • 9:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

2-0  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Juan Morillo
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Morillo

#62 | Relief Pitcher
@
Edwin Diaz
STARTING PITCHER

Edwin Diaz

#3 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Morillo None-None 10.80 -- 0.2 --
Edwin Diaz None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
10.80 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
📊
DODGERS
0%
DIAMONDBACKS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

40.1%

Dodgers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

ARI By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

10.6%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ARIZONA
4
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 4
Aug 8, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 1
Aug 7, 2026 LAD @ ARI 3 - 4
Jul 12, 2026 ARI @ LAD 5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ARI @ LAD 9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.720
OPS
▲ .762
166
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +81.2% more
Los Angeles: 1.8 vs Arizona: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +59.3% more
Los Angeles: 10.2 vs Arizona: 6.4
Home Runs (Season) +22.9% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Runs per Game (Season) +8.3% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Arizona: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 3.0 2
LAD Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.7 6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 6.4 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 13.3 10.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.6 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
ARI
LAD
ARI
ML
56% 92-73
54% 87-74
48% 79-87
54% 86-74
ATS
59% 98-67
57% 91-70
43% 72-94
56% 89-71
TTL
48% 77-82-6
52% 80-73-8
44% 70-90-6
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 4 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 5 hours, 54 minutes ago
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
newspub_live 12 hours ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 1 minute ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 18 hours, 5 minutes ago