TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
0-1 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
1-0 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Alexander
#13 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Alexander | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
5.40
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
0%
PHILLIES
100%
RANGERS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.3%
PHI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
TEX @ PHI
8 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
TEX @ PHI
5 - 4
Mar 26, 2026
TEX @ PHI
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2025
PHI @ TEX
4 - 2
Aug 9, 2025
PHI @ TEX
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.713
OPS
▲
.724
183
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.4% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.7% more
Texas: 4.2
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
On-Base Pct (Season)
+3.1%
Texas: 31.7%
vs
Philadelphia: 28.6%
Errors (L5)
+80.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.8
vs
Texas: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
3.0
5
PHI Score
2.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.0
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.2
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 9.4
13.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 11.6
6.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.3
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
TEX
PHI
TEX
ML
59%
97-67
53%
86-76
49%
80-84
57%
91-70
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
92-70
51%
83-81
61%
98-63
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
78-70-14
51%
78-76-9
55%
81-66-14
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