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DALLAS

STARSDAL

43-18-11  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Mar 28 • 5:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

36-20-16  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
@
Kris Letang
GOALTENDER

Kris Letang

#58 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jake Oettinger None-None 3.03 0.750 --
Kris Letang None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.03 GAA --
0.750 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
📊
PENGUINS
100%
STARS --
PENGUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

30.9%

Penguins Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

PIT By 1 goal

12.1%

PIT By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
DALLAS
2
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
2
DALLAS
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penguins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Penguins (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 28, 2026 DAL @ PIT 6 - 3
Dec 7, 2025 PIT @ DAL 2 - 3
Apr 5, 2025 PIT @ DAL 5 - 3
Nov 11, 2024 DAL @ PIT 7 - 1
Mar 22, 2024 PIT @ DAL 2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +30.9% more
Dallas: 16.1 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Hits (L5) +11.5% more
Dallas: 22.3 vs Pittsburgh: 19.7
Faceoff % (L5) +3.0%
Dallas: 49.3% vs Pittsburgh: 46.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 3.0 6
PIT Score 2.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
72%MONEY28%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
DAL
PIT
DAL
ML
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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