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OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

38-24-10  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Mar 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

44-21-6  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Artem Zub
GOALTENDER

Artem Zub

#2 | Defense
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Artem Zub None-None -- -- --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 2.00 0.929 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 2.00
-- Save % 0.929
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
SENATORS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
SenatorsOTT (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Senators Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

OTT By 1 goal

12.1%

OTT By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
OTTAWA
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
OTTAWA
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 7, 2026 TB @ OTT 2 - 6
Mar 28, 2026 OTT @ TB 2 - 4
Oct 9, 2025 OTT @ TB 5 - 4
Apr 3, 2025 TB @ OTT 1 - 2
Feb 6, 2025 OTT @ TB 1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +36.8% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Ottawa: 24.3
Power Play % (L5) +32.0%
Ottawa: 63.5% vs Tampa Bay: 31.5%
Hits (L5) +30.1% more
Ottawa: 26.2 vs Tampa Bay: 18.3
Takeaways (L5) +21.9% more
Ottawa: 5.0 vs Tampa Bay: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OTT Score 2.0 2
TB Score 3.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
62%MONEY38%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
OTT
TB
OTT
ML
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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