Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Raptors NO @ TOR

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

25-49  |  Road

106
FINAL
Fri, Mar 27 • 8:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

40-32  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
RAPTORS
0%
PELICANS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

46.0%

Raptors Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

NO By 1-7 points

24.3%

NO By 8-14 points

13.7%

TOR By 1-7 points

26.2%

TOR By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
119
NEW ORLEANS
120
TORONTO
Simulated Score
110
NEW ORLEANS
115
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raptors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raptors (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o229.5 Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim u229.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 NO @ TOR 106 - 119
Mar 11, 2026 TOR @ NO 111 - 122
Jan 27, 2025 NO @ TOR 104 - 113
Nov 27, 2024 TOR @ NO 119 - 93
Mar 5, 2024 NO @ TOR 139 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +17.6% more
Toronto: 33.0 vs New Orleans: 28.0
Turnovers (L5) +13.2% more
Toronto: 14.2 vs New Orleans: 12.5
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Toronto: 50.1% vs New Orleans: 47.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +12.6%
New Orleans: 70.0% vs Toronto: 57.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 119.0 106
TOR Score 120.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.8 / 37.6 36.0 / 25.0
Assists 33.0 / 28.0 36.0 / 21.0
Blocks 6.1 / 5.7 8.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 47.6 52.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 57.4 / 70.0 72.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 40.7 46.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.0 / 9.5 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 12.5 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NO
TOR
NO
ML
55% 57-47
62% 98-61
55% 48-39
58% 48-35
ATS
61% 62-40-2
68% 107-51-1
55% 48-39
58% 48-35
TTL
60% 62-42
75% 119-40
100% 87-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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