Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Grizzlies HOU @ MEM

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

43-29  |  Road

119
FINAL
Fri, Mar 27 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

24-48  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
ROCKETS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

98.2%

Grizzlies Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

6.8%

HOU By 8-14 points

16.9%

MEM By 1-7 points

1.4%

MEM By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
132
HOUSTON
111
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
105
HOUSTON
117
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o228.5 Loss
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 MEM @ HOU 101 - 132
Mar 27, 2026 HOU @ MEM 119 - 109
Jan 26, 2026 MEM @ HOU 99 - 108
Nov 5, 2025 HOU @ MEM 124 - 109
Jan 30, 2025 HOU @ MEM 119 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.6% more
Houston: 6.6 vs Memphis: 3.5
Rebounding (L5) +25.9% more
Houston: 47.3 vs Memphis: 35.1
Turnovers (L5) +17.5% more
Houston: 17.9 vs Memphis: 14.7
Assists (L5) +15.3% more
Houston: 27.6 vs Memphis: 23.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 132.0 119
MEM Score 111.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 33.5 35.0 / 36.0
Assists 23.4 / 27.6 28.0 / 30.0
Blocks 3.5 / 6.6 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 47.6 44.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 78.1 / 78.4 89.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 47.3 39.0 / 57.0
Steals 8.9 / 7.3 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 17.9 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
HOU
MEM
HOU
ML
57% 59-44
61% 69-44
50% 41-41
59% 51-35
ATS
63% 65-38
62% 70-43
50% 41-41
59% 51-35
TTL
70% 71-31-1
51% 58-55
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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