Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Trail Blazers DAL @ POR

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

23-50  |  Road

100
FINAL
Fri, Mar 27 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

37-37  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
MAVERICKS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Portland)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

18.4%

Trail Blazers Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

DAL By 1-7 points

12.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

4.0%

POR By 1-7 points

24.3%

POR By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
119
DALLAS
128
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
109
DALLAS
122
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o240.5 Loss
Proj Total: 247.0
D
Sim u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 DAL @ POR 100 - 93
Dec 29, 2025 DAL @ POR 122 - 125
Nov 16, 2025 POR @ DAL 133 - 138
Jan 9, 2025 POR @ DAL 111 - 117
Dec 28, 2024 DAL @ POR 122 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +86.2% more
Portland: 7.4 vs Dallas: 4.0
Turnovers (L5) +48.0% more
Portland: 19.0 vs Dallas: 12.8
Steals (L5) +24.3% more
Portland: 8.9 vs Dallas: 7.1
Rebounding (L5) +22.0% more
Portland: 49.2 vs Dallas: 40.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 119.0 100
POR Score 128.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.1 / 37.9 27.0 / 29.0
Assists 29.1 / 30.2 16.0 / 24.0
Blocks 7.4 / 4.0 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 50.3 39.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 77.9 / 75.5 70.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 49.2 / 40.4 48.0 / 37.0
Steals 8.9 / 7.1 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 19.0 / 12.8 25.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
DAL
POR
DAL
ML
53% 56-49
62% 63-39
55% 49-40
54% 44-37
ATS
62% 65-39-1
67% 68-34
55% 49-40
54% 44-37
TTL
56% 58-46-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 89-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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