Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Nuggets UTAH @ DEN

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

21-52  |  Road

129
FINAL
Fri, Mar 27 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

46-28  |  Home

135
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
JAZZ --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
254.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Denver)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

27.4%

Nuggets Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

UTAH By 1-7 points

16.9%

UTAH By 8-14 points

6.8%

DEN By 1-7 points

26.8%

DEN By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
124
UTAH
130
DENVER
Simulated Score
109
UTAH
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o246.5 Win
Proj Total: 254.0
D
Sim u246.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 DEN @ UTAH 130 - 117
Mar 27, 2026 UTAH @ DEN 129 - 135
Mar 2, 2026 DEN @ UTAH 128 - 125
Dec 22, 2025 UTAH @ DEN 112 - 135
Mar 28, 2025 UTAH @ DEN 93 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +15.6% more
Denver: 34.3 vs Utah: 29.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.9%
Denver: 44.1% vs Utah: 30.2%
Rebounding (L5) +10.9% more
Denver: 45.3 vs Utah: 40.8
Free Throw % (L5) +7.6%
Denver: 79.1% vs Utah: 71.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 124.0 129
DEN Score 130.0 135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.1 / 30.2 40.0 / 27.0
Assists 34.3 / 29.7 34.0 / 34.0
Blocks 2.2 / 6.3 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 53.0 / 46.5 47.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 79.1 / 71.5 81.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 45.3 / 40.8 50.0 / 43.0
Steals 3.6 / 10.0 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 15.5 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
UTAH
DEN
UTAH
ML
54% 57-48
60% 96-63
55% 47-39
48% 40-43
ATS
63% 65-38-2
68% 108-51
55% 47-39
48% 40-43
TTL
54% 56-48-1
75% 119-39-1
100% 86-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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