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CHICAGO

BULLSCHI

29-43  |  Road

113
FINAL
Fri, Mar 27 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

57-16  |  Home

131
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
BULLS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Oklahoma City)
BullsCHI (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

42.1%

Thunder Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

CHI By 1-7 points

23.0%

CHI By 8-14 points

12.2%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
120
CHICAGO
122
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
115
CHICAGO
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Bulls (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o239.5 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u239.5 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 CHI @ OKC 113 - 131
Mar 3, 2026 OKC @ CHI 116 - 108
Mar 31, 2025 CHI @ OKC 117 - 145
Oct 26, 2024 OKC @ CHI 114 - 95
Nov 22, 2023 CHI @ OKC 102 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +29.6% more
Oklahoma City: 5.5 vs Chicago: 4.2
Steals (L5) +12.7% more
Oklahoma City: 8.0 vs Chicago: 7.1
Free Throw % (L5) +2.5%
Oklahoma City: 81.8% vs Chicago: 79.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.5%
Oklahoma City: 49.9% vs Chicago: 48.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 120.0 113
OKC Score 122.0 131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 36.6 31.0 / 32.0
Assists 24.7 / 28.7 29.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.5 / 4.2 9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.9 / 48.3 47.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 81.8 / 79.3 74.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 43.9 / 46.0 58.0 / 47.0
Steals 8.0 / 7.1 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 15.6 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
31-51-0 (37.8%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0 (47.6%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7% Total +/-: +0.5
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
CHI
OKC
CHI
ML
70% 80-34
56% 54-42
48% 46-49
57% 46-35
ATS
73% 83-30-1
65% 62-33-1
48% 46-49
57% 46-35
TTL
67% 76-38
58% 56-40
100% 95-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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