Home / NHL Projections NHL / Red Wings @ Sabres DET @ BUF

DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

38-25-8  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Mar 27 • 7:00 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

44-20-8  |  Home

2
Goaltending
John Gibson
GOALTENDER

John Gibson

#36 | Goaltender
@
Alex Lyon
GOALTENDER

Alex Lyon

#34 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
John Gibson None-None 2.00 0.933 --
Alex Lyon None-None 4.14 0.789 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 4.14
0.933 Ldr Save % 0.789
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
100%
📊
SABRES
0%
RED WINGS --
SABRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Buffalo)
Red WingsDET (-3.5) 0 SabresBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wings Cover

15.9%

Sabres Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

DET By 1 goal

6.6%

DET By 2-3 goals

3.7%

BUF By 1 goal

17.5%

BUF By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
DETROIT
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
2
DETROIT
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sabres Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sabres Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sabres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Sabres (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 DET @ BUF 5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025 BUF @ DET 5 - 4
Oct 22, 2025 DET @ BUF 2 - 4
Sep 27, 2025 DET @ BUF 2 - 5
Sep 25, 2025 BUF @ DET 2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +8.3% more
Buffalo: 27.2 vs Detroit: 25.1
Faceoff % (L5) +7.1%
Buffalo: 48.1% vs Detroit: 41.0%
Power Play % (L5) +2.0%
Buffalo: 26.3% vs Detroit: 24.3%
Hits (L5) +15.6% more
Detroit: 20.6 vs Buffalo: 17.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 1.0 5
BUF Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
65%MONEY35%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
DET
BUF
DET
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
TTL
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
yardbarker 7 hours, 40 minutes ago
Dylan Larkin Scores in Return to Red Wings Lineup Amid Trade Req…
nbcsports 1 day, 7 hours ago
Dylan Larkin Cleared to Return: Red Wings Star Set for Season De…
yardbarker 2 days, 7 hours ago
Alex Ovechkin Announces Final NHL Season: Capitals Legend Set fo…
headtopics 2 days, 19 hours ago
Red Wings' Power Play Woes Sink Them Against Jets
mlive 4 days, 1 hour ago