MIAMI
HEATMIA
39-34 | Road
128
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
45-28 | Home
149
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
HEAT
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
MIA By 1-7 points
12.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
4.0%
CLE By 1-7 points
24.3%
CLE By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
119
MIAMI
Cleveland
128
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Miami
102
MIAMI
Cleveland
110
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o242.5
Win
Proj Total: 247.0
D
Sim
u242.5
Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 27, 2026
MIA @ CLE
128 - 149
Mar 25, 2026
MIA @ CLE
120 - 103
Nov 12, 2025
CLE @ MIA
130 - 116
Nov 10, 2025
CLE @ MIA
138 - 140
Apr 28, 2025
CLE @ MIA
138 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Cleveland: 49.1%
vs
Miami: 47.6%
Steals (L5)
+34.3% more
Miami: 9.0
vs
Cleveland: 5.9
Blocks (L5)
+16.6% more
Miami: 3.9
vs
Cleveland: 3.3
Assists (L5)
+12.5% more
Miami: 29.8
vs
Cleveland: 26.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
119.0
128
CLE Score
128.0
149
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 34.9
46.0 / 33.0
Assists
26.0 / 29.8
38.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.3 / 3.9
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 47.6
54.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
80.5 / 83.7
84.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
42.6 / 40.5
46.0 / 45.0
Steals
5.9 / 9.0
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 12.4
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIA
CLE
MIA
ML
60%
69-46
48%
46-50
56%
55-44
59%
48-34
ATS
67%
75-37-3
51%
49-47
56%
55-44
59%
48-34
TTL
59%
68-47
59%
57-39
100%
99-0
100%
82-0
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