Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hawks @ Celtics ATL @ BOS

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

41-32  |  Road

102
FINAL
Fri, Mar 27 • 7:30 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

48-24  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
📊
CELTICS
100%
HAWKS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HawksATL (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

46.0%

Celtics Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

ATL By 1-7 points

26.2%

ATL By 8-14 points

16.9%

BOS By 1-7 points

24.3%

BOS By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
113
ATLANTA
112
BOSTON
Simulated Score
123
ATLANTA
110
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Hawks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o224.5 Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim u224.5 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 BOS @ ATL 102 - 112
Mar 27, 2026 ATL @ BOS 102 - 109
Jan 28, 2026 ATL @ BOS 117 - 106
Jan 17, 2026 BOS @ ATL 132 - 106
Jan 18, 2025 ATL @ BOS 119 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +31.6% more
Atlanta: 9.9 vs Boston: 6.8
Assists (L5) +27.7% more
Atlanta: 31.2 vs Boston: 22.5
Blocks (L5) +24.0% more
Atlanta: 3.8 vs Boston: 2.9
Turnovers (L5) +19.8% more
Atlanta: 16.1 vs Boston: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 113.0 102
BOS Score 112.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 36.8 40.0 / 36.0
Assists 22.5 / 31.2 26.0 / 23.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.8 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 49.7 47.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 86.9 / 79.9 83.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 48.3 / 45.5 52.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.8 / 9.9 0.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 16.1 16.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATL
BOS
ATL
ML
57% 61-46
50% 52-52
53% 47-41
55% 48-40
ATS
59% 61-43-3
53% 55-48-1
53% 47-41
55% 48-40
TTL
56% 60-47
53% 55-48-1
100% 88-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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