Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Crimson Tide @ Wolverines ALA @ MICH

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

25-9  |  Road

77
FINAL
Fri, Mar 27 • 7:35 PM ET
United Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

33-3  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON TIDE
100%
📊
WOLVERINES
0%
CRIMSON TIDE --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Michigan)
Crimson TideALA (-3.5) 0 WolverinesMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crimson Tide Cover

11.5%

Wolverines Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MICH -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

ALA By 1-7 points

8.0%

ALA By 8-14 points

2.2%

MICH By 1-7 points

20.1%

MICH By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
76
ALABAMA
88
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
76
ALABAMA
82
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolverines Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolverines Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolverines (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u172.5 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u172.5 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 ALA @ MICH 77 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +53.3% more
Michigan: 7.1 vs Alabama: 4.7
Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
Michigan: 54.4% vs Alabama: 45.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Michigan: 41.2% vs Alabama: 37.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.0%
Michigan: 77.6% vs Alabama: 74.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 76.0 77
MICH Score 88.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.2 / 37.0 48.0 / 30.0
Assists 19.3 / 18.0 22.0 / 14.0
Blocks 7.1 / 4.7 8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 54.4 / 45.3 50.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 74.6 55.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 42.4 46.0 / 32.0
Steals 3.3 / 6.7 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 10.1 8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
MICH Advantage
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
ALA
MICH
ALA
ML
78% 31-9
63% 22-13
63% 24-14
58% 19-14
ATS
78% 31-9
60% 21-14
63% 24-14
58% 19-14
TTL
57% 23-17
63% 22-13
100% 38-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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