Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Storm @ Blue Devils SJU @ DUKE

ST. JOHN'S

RED STORMSJU

30-6  |  Road

75
FINAL
Fri, Mar 27 • 7:10 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

34-2  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
RED STORM
0%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
100%
RED STORM --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Red StormSJU (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Storm Cover

27.4%

Blue Devils Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DUKE +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

SJU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SJU By 8-14 points

24.3%

DUKE By 1-7 points

16.9%

DUKE By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
75
ST. JOHN'S
69
DUKE
Simulated Score
72
ST. JOHN'S
78
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Storm Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 SJU @ DUKE 75 - 80
Feb 2, 2019 SJU @ DUKE 61 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.1% more
St. John's: 4.9 vs Duke: 2.9
Steals (L5) +24.1% more
St. John's: 6.7 vs Duke: 5.1
Turnovers (L5) +36.7% more
Duke: 11.9 vs St. John's: 8.7
Free Throw % (L5) +14.8%
Duke: 81.2% vs St. John's: 66.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJU Score 75.0 75
DUKE Score 69.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.6 / 30.8 36.0 / 41.0
Assists 14.7 / 13.9 13.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.9 / 4.9 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 43.3 54.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 81.2 / 66.4 63.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 42.2 / 37.9 40.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.1 / 6.7 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 8.7 9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJU
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJU Advantage
22-13-1 (62.9%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
DUKE
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9% Total +/-: -3.6
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
SJU
DUKE
SJU
ML
71% 27-11
62% 18-11
73% 24-9
62% 18-11
ATS
79% 30-8
66% 19-10
73% 24-9
62% 18-11
TTL
47% 18-20
59% 17-12
100% 33-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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