NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
25-48 | Road
108
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
52-20 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
PISTONS
0%
PELICANS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
NO By 1-7 points
9.3%
NO By 8-14 points
2.7%
DET By 1-7 points
21.6%
DET By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
120
NEW ORLEANS
Detroit
131
DETROIT
Simulated Score
New Orleans
105
NEW ORLEANS
Detroit
115
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o226.5
Win
Proj Total: 251.0
D
Sim
u226.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 26, 2026
NO @ DET
108 - 129
Jan 21, 2026
DET @ NO
112 - 104
Mar 23, 2025
NO @ DET
130 - 136
Mar 17, 2025
DET @ NO
127 - 81
Mar 24, 2024
NO @ DET
114 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+26.6% more
Detroit: 10.5
vs
New Orleans: 8.3
Turnovers (L5)
+15.8% more
Detroit: 13.1
vs
New Orleans: 11.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
New Orleans: 38.4%
vs
Detroit: 32.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
120.0
108
DET Score
131.0
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 38.4
54.0 / 36.0
Assists
31.3 / 29.0
34.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.0 / 5.0
6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 48.4
56.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
81.9 / 82.0
78.0 / 46.0
Rebounding
42.2 / 40.0
45.0 / 42.0
Steals
10.5 / 8.3
9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 11.3
19.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
NO
DET
NO
ML
55%
64-53
62%
98-61
49%
47-49
58%
48-35
ATS
53%
60-54-3
68%
107-51-1
49%
47-49
58%
48-35
TTL
60%
70-46-1
75%
119-40
100%
96-0
100%
83-0
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