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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

35-20-16  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Mar 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

38-24-9  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Kris Letang
GOALTENDER

Kris Letang

#58 | Defense
@
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Kris Letang None-None -- -- --
Linus Ullmark None-None 2.77 0.925 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 2.77
-- Save % 0.925
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
📊
SENATORS
100%
PENGUINS --
SENATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Pittsburgh)
PenguinsPIT (-3.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

84.1%

Senators Cover

15.9%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1 goal

17.5%

PIT By 2-3 goals

37.2%

OTT By 1 goal

6.6%

OTT By 2-3 goals

3.7%

AI Model Projected Score
5
PITTSBURGH
3
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
2
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penguins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penguins (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Penguins (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 26, 2026 PIT @ OTT 4 - 3
Feb 2, 2026 OTT @ PIT 3 - 2
Dec 18, 2025 PIT @ OTT 0 - 4
Mar 30, 2025 OTT @ PIT 0 - 1
Jan 11, 2025 OTT @ PIT 5 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +20.4% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5 vs Ottawa: 24.3
Power Play % (L5) +61.0%
Ottawa: 63.5% vs Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Takeaways (L5) +28.7% more
Ottawa: 6.0 vs Pittsburgh: 4.6
Faceoff % (L5) +12.4%
Ottawa: 58.7% vs Pittsburgh: 46.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 5.0 4
OTT Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
51%MONEY49%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
PIT
OTT
PIT
ML
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
ATS
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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