Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hawkeyes @ Cornhuskers IOWA @ NEB

IOWA

HAWKEYESIOWA

23-12  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Mar 26 • 7:30 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

NEBRASKA

CORNHUSKERSNEB

28-6  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKEYES
100%
📊
CORNHUSKERS
0%
HAWKEYES --
CORNHUSKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NEBRASKA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Nebraska)
HawkeyesIOWA (-3.5) 0 CornhuskersNEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawkeyes Cover

30.9%

Cornhuskers Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEB -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEB)

IOWA By 1-7 points

18.6%

IOWA By 8-14 points

8.0%

NEB By 1-7 points

27.2%

NEB By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
69
IOWA
74
NEBRASKA
Simulated Score
72
IOWA
75
NEBRASKA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cornhuskers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cornhuskers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cornhuskers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Cornhuskers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o131.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 26, 2026 IOWA @ NEB 77 - 71
Mar 8, 2026 IOWA @ NEB 75 - 84
Feb 17, 2026 NEB @ IOWA 52 - 57
Mar 9, 2025 IOWA @ NEB 83 - 68
Jan 7, 2025 NEB @ IOWA 87 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +39.3% more
Nebraska: 7.0 vs Iowa: 5.0
Assists (L5) +30.5% more
Nebraska: 17.0 vs Iowa: 13.0
Blocks (L5) +16.0% more
Nebraska: 1.0 vs Iowa: 0.8
Rebounding (L5) +10.7% more
Nebraska: 32.7 vs Iowa: 29.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score 69.0 77
NEB Score 74.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 33.1 34.0 / 43.0
Assists 17.0 / 13.0 19.0 / 18.0
Blocks 1.0 / 0.8 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 46.9 41.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 71.9 91.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 29.6 35.0 / 26.0
Steals 7.0 / 5.0 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 9.9 10.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
NEB Advantage
28-7-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
NEB
19-15-1 (55.9%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.6
NEB
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -6.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
IOWA
NEB
IOWA
ML
51% 18-17
59% 22-15
62% 21-13
78% 28-8
ATS
54% 19-16
76% 28-9
62% 21-13
78% 28-8
TTL
63% 22-13
57% 21-16
100% 34-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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