TEXAS
LONGHORNSTEX
21-14 | Road
77
PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
29-8 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
LONGHORNS
100%
BOILERMAKERS
0%
LONGHORNS
--
BOILERMAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Purdue)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)
TEX By 1-7 points
23.0%
TEX By 8-14 points
12.2%
PUR By 1-7 points
26.8%
PUR By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
72
TEXAS
Purdue
74
PURDUE
Simulated Score
Texas
74
TEXAS
Purdue
78
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Boilermakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Boilermakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 26, 2026
TEX @ PUR
77 - 79
Mar 20, 2022
TEX @ PUR
71 - 81
Nov 9, 2019
TEX @ PUR
70 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+37.1% more
Purdue: 20.3
vs
Texas: 14.8
Steals (L5)
+21.5% more
Purdue: 5.8
vs
Texas: 4.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.0%
Purdue: 47.0%
vs
Texas: 34.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+9.0% more
Purdue: 9.6
vs
Texas: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
72.0
77
PUR Score
74.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
47.0 / 34.0
20.0 / 44.0
Assists
20.3 / 14.8
12.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.7
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
53.6 / 45.8
48.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 71.3
75.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
32.1 / 35.3
32.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.8 / 4.8
3.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 8.8
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
PUR
Advantage
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
TEX
PUR
TEX
ML
67%
26-13
58%
21-15
66%
25-13
56%
19-15
ATS
64%
25-14
56%
20-16
66%
25-13
56%
19-15
TTL
51%
20-19
64%
23-13
100%
38-0
100%
34-0
Contextual Game News
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