DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
23-49 | Road
135
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
45-28 | Home
142
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
MAVERICKS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
265.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DAL By 1-7 points
21.6%
DAL By 8-14 points
10.7%
DEN By 1-7 points
27.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
131
DALLAS
Denver
134
DENVER
Simulated Score
Dallas
114
DALLAS
Denver
110
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o245.5
Win
Proj Total: 265.0
D
Sim
u245.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
DAL @ DEN
135 - 142
Jan 14, 2026
DEN @ DAL
118 - 109
Dec 23, 2025
DEN @ DAL
130 - 131
Dec 1, 2025
DAL @ DEN
131 - 121
Jan 14, 2025
DEN @ DAL
118 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+14.9% more
Denver: 45.4
vs
Dallas: 39.5
Assists (L5)
+12.0% more
Denver: 33.4
vs
Dallas: 29.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.3%
Denver: 79.1%
vs
Dallas: 73.8%
Steals (L5)
+47.0% more
Dallas: 9.2
vs
Denver: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
131.0
135
DEN Score
134.0
142
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.1 / 39.8
50.0 / 34.0
Assists
33.4 / 29.9
36.0 / 31.0
Blocks
2.8 / 4.5
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.5 / 50.9
56.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
79.1 / 73.8
79.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
45.4 / 39.5
45.0 / 42.0
Steals
4.9 / 9.2
1.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 17.3
9.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
DAL
DEN
DAL
ML
54%
57-48
62%
63-39
55%
47-39
54%
44-37
ATS
63%
65-38-2
67%
68-34
55%
47-39
54%
44-37
TTL
54%
56-48-1
59%
60-41-1
100%
86-0
100%
81-0
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