Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Pacers LAL @ IND

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

46-26  |  Road

137
FINAL
Wed, Mar 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

16-56  |  Home

130
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
LAKERS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

97.7%

Pacers Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

8.0%

LAL By 8-14 points

18.6%

IND By 1-7 points

1.7%

IND By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
121
LOS ANGELES
101
INDIANA
Simulated Score
114
LOS ANGELES
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u240.5 Loss
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Sim u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 LAL @ IND 137 - 130
Mar 6, 2026 IND @ LAL 117 - 128
Mar 26, 2025 LAL @ IND 120 - 119
Feb 8, 2025 IND @ LAL 117 - 124
Mar 29, 2024 LAL @ IND 90 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.6% more
Los Angeles: 8.3 vs Indiana: 6.0
Blocks (L5) +17.4% more
Los Angeles: 5.3 vs Indiana: 4.4
Rebounding (L5) +14.3% more
Los Angeles: 40.7 vs Indiana: 34.9
Turnovers (L5) +8.1% more
Los Angeles: 12.8 vs Indiana: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 121.0 137
IND Score 101.0 130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.6 / 32.5 41.0 / 39.0
Assists 32.5 / 24.6 35.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.4 / 5.3 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.6 / 49.5 56.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 84.1 / 75.1 78.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 40.7 34.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.0 / 8.3 7.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 12.8 18.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
LAL
IND
LAL
ML
48% 47-50
61% 68-43
54% 45-38
54% 49-42
ATS
59% 57-40
61% 67-43-1
54% 45-38
54% 49-42
TTL
54% 52-45
61% 66-43-2
100% 83-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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