MIAMI
HEATMIA
38-34 | Road
120
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
45-27 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
HEAT
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
MIA By 1-7 points
3.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
0.6%
CLE By 1-7 points
12.2%
CLE By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
117
MIAMI
Cleveland
134
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Miami
108
MIAMI
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o242.5
Loss
Proj Total: 251.0
D
Sim
u242.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 27, 2026
MIA @ CLE
128 - 149
Mar 25, 2026
MIA @ CLE
120 - 103
Nov 12, 2025
CLE @ MIA
130 - 116
Nov 10, 2025
CLE @ MIA
138 - 140
Apr 28, 2025
CLE @ MIA
138 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
Cleveland: 52.2%
vs
Miami: 45.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
Cleveland: 36.4%
vs
Miami: 32.3%
Steals (L5)
+14.1% more
Miami: 8.0
vs
Cleveland: 6.9
Assists (L5)
+10.6% more
Miami: 29.1
vs
Cleveland: 26.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
117.0
120
CLE Score
134.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 32.3
32.0 / 40.0
Assists
26.1 / 29.1
26.0 / 31.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.4
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
52.2 / 45.3
43.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
76.7 / 84.6
88.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
43.9 / 40.7
40.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.9 / 8.0
4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 11.5
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIA
CLE
MIA
ML
60%
69-46
48%
46-50
56%
55-44
59%
48-34
ATS
67%
75-37-3
51%
49-47
56%
55-44
59%
48-34
TTL
59%
68-47
59%
57-39
100%
99-0
100%
82-0
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