ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
40-32 | Road
130
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
52-19 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
PISTONS
0%
HAWKS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
ATL By 1-7 points
12.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
4.0%
DET By 1-7 points
24.3%
DET By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
114
ATLANTA
Detroit
123
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Atlanta
106
ATLANTA
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o229.5
Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
ATL @ DET
130 - 129
Dec 12, 2025
ATL @ DET
115 - 142
Dec 1, 2025
ATL @ DET
98 - 99
Nov 18, 2025
DET @ ATL
120 - 112
Feb 23, 2025
DET @ ATL
148 - 143
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+10.2% more
Atlanta: 14.1
vs
Detroit: 12.6
Steals (L5)
+9.8% more
Atlanta: 10.8
vs
Detroit: 9.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
Atlanta: 84.4%
vs
Detroit: 80.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Atlanta: 50.6%
vs
Detroit: 48.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
114.0
130
DET Score
123.0
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 37.7
27.0 / 35.0
Assists
30.4 / 31.3
33.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.0 / 5.3
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 50.6
51.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
80.8 / 84.4
84.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
41.8 / 43.2
43.0 / 50.0
Steals
9.8 / 10.8
12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 14.1
14.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ATL
DET
ATL
ML
55%
64-53
50%
52-52
49%
47-49
55%
48-40
ATS
53%
60-54-3
53%
55-48-1
49%
47-49
55%
48-40
TTL
60%
70-46-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
96-0
100%
88-0
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