PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
0-0 | Road
7
NEW YORK
METSNYM
0-0 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gregory Soto
#31 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Francisco Alvarez
#4 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Soto | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Francisco Alvarez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
METS
0%
PIRATES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
NYM @ PIT
11 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
NYM @ PIT
0 - 9
Aug 7, 2026
NYM @ PIT
6 - 4
Mar 29, 2026
PIT @ NYM
4 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
PIT @ NYM
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.734
▲
OPS
.705
186
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+12.0% more
New York: 0.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.8
Home Runs (Season)
+9.7% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 186.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.1% more
Pittsburgh: 9.3
vs
New York: 7.2
Errors (L5)
+18.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.5
vs
New York: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.0
7
NYM Score
4.0
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.9 / 8.3
11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.8
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 9.3
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 12.3
20.0 / 22.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.7
0.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PIT
NYM
PIT
ML
50%
79-80
52%
82-77
48%
76-83
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
93-66
54%
86-73
49%
78-81
50%
81-82
TTL
55%
80-66-13
47%
72-81-6
51%
74-72-13
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…