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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

57-15  |  Road

109
FINAL
Wed, Mar 25 • 7:30 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

47-24  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
CELTICS
100%
THUNDER --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

93.3%

Celtics Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

15.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

25.3%

BOS By 1-7 points

4.8%

BOS By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
123
OKLAHOMA CITY
108
BOSTON
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o222.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim u222.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 OKC @ BOS 109 - 119
Mar 12, 2026 BOS @ OKC 102 - 104
Mar 12, 2025 OKC @ BOS 118 - 112
Jan 5, 2025 BOS @ OKC 92 - 105
Apr 3, 2024 OKC @ BOS 100 - 135
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +64.5% more
Oklahoma City: 6.7 vs Boston: 2.4
Assists (L5) +25.5% more
Oklahoma City: 28.6 vs Boston: 21.3
Steals (L5) +9.5% more
Oklahoma City: 8.4 vs Boston: 7.6
Field Goal % (L5) +8.2%
Oklahoma City: 50.8% vs Boston: 42.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 123.0 109
BOS Score 108.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.6 / 38.6 44.0 / 32.0
Assists 21.3 / 28.6 25.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.4 / 6.7 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 50.8 47.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 87.3 / 82.2 86.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 51.0 / 48.4 43.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.4 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 13.7 13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
BOS
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
OKC
BOS
OKC
ML
57% 61-46
70% 80-34
53% 47-41
48% 46-49
ATS
59% 61-43-3
73% 83-30-1
53% 47-41
48% 46-49
TTL
56% 60-47
67% 76-38
100% 88-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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